WASHINGTON, 8 October 2025: The United States is projected to maintain record levels of crude oil production over the next two years, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The updated forecast reflects a marginal upward revision from the agency’s September estimate and follows new data showing U.S. crude oil output exceeded 13.6 million barrels per day in July, the highest monthly production on record.
The EIA noted that the July figure surpassed previous expectations and has contributed to a stronger baseline for future projections. Despite the July peak, the agency anticipates production will stabilize rather than continue increasing, as current market conditions, including lower oil prices, are expected to limit further output growth. However, output in the U.S. remains the primary driver of global non-OPEC supply gains, even as members of the OPEC+ alliance adjust their production strategies.
The EIA expects OPEC+ production to remain below its publicly stated targets through 2026. The group, which includes major exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November. The limited scale of the adjustment comes amid continued concerns over global supply exceeding demand. Global oil production is forecast to rise steadily over the next 15 months, resulting in expanding petroleum inventories.
US oil output set to hold steady at record levels
The EIA expects the build-up in global stockpiles will exert downward pressure on prices. Brent crude is projected to average $62 per barrel in the final quarter of 2025 before falling further to an average of $52 per barrel in 2026. The outlook also includes projections for U.S. natural gas markets. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to increase from just under $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September to $4.10 per MMBtu by January 2026.
This January price forecast is nearly 50 cents lower than the EIA’s previous estimate. The revision reflects higher-than-expected natural gas production, which is expected to boost inventory levels and ease market tightness. On the export front, the U.S. is set to expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity significantly over the next two years. Approximately 5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of additional export capacity will come online with the startup of Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3.
China ramps up strategic petroleum reserve build
As a result, U.S. LNG exports are forecast to rise to 15 Bcf/d in 2025 and reach 16 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 12 Bcf/d in 2024. The updated production and pricing outlook comes at a time of heightened attention to global energy markets. Oil prices have shown modest gains in recent sessions, supported by limited OPEC+ output growth. Brent crude futures recently traded near $65.70 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered around $61.90.
Meanwhile, China’s ongoing efforts to expand its strategic petroleum reserves signal sustained demand for crude storage infrastructure. Over 11 new reserve facilities are currently under construction across the country. The EIA emphasized that its forecasts are based on current market data, reported inventories, and confirmed infrastructure projects. The agency continues to monitor production trends, inventory levels, and trade flows in formulating its monthly outlooks. – By Content Syndication Services.